Working Papers
Temporary Protection and Technology Adoption: Evidence from the Napoleonic Blockade
Awarded FREIT-EIIT Best Graduate Paper Prize, 2014
Paper (to be) presented at: ETSG 2014 (Munich, September 11-13) , NEUDC 2014 (Boston, November 1-2), FREIT EIIT North-American Meeting 2014 (Eugene, November 7-9), SAEe 2014 (Palma de Mallorca, December 11-12), Econometric Society European Winter Meeting (Madrid, December 15-16)
This paper uses a natural experiment to assess whether temporary protection from trade with industrial leaders can foster development of infant industries in follower countries. Using a new dataset compiled from primary sources, I find that in the short-run regions (départements) in the French Empire which became better protected from trade with the British for exogenous reasons during the Napoleonic Wars (1803-15) increased capacity in a new technology, mechanised cotton spinning, to a larger extent than regions which remained more exposed to trade. Temporary protection had long term effects. In particular, by exploiting the fact that the post-war location of the cotton industry was determined to a large extent by the historical accident of the wars, I first show that the location of cotton spinning within France was persistent, and firms located in regions with higher post-war spinning capacity were more productive 30 years later. Second, I find that after the restoration of peace, exports of cotton goods from France increased substantially, consistent with evolving comparative advantage in cottons. Third, I show that as late as 1850, France and Belgium - both part of the French Empire prior to 1815 - had larger cotton spinning industries than other Continental European countries which were not protected from British trade during the wars; this suggests that adoption of the new technology was far from inevitable.
Work in Progress
Inter-industry linkages: Evidence from France
Many theories of economic development assume inter-industry spillovers of productivity, yet the empirical importance of these linkages is not well understood. Disentangling inter-industry spillovers from location fundamentals, which tend to make the same area favourable for different sectors, is generally difficult. In this paper, I exploit a historical accident that led to mechanised cotton spinning developing in one particular location in France. I examine how the location of the first modern industrial sector in France effected the locational choice of other modern (mechanised) industries which developed later in the 19th century. It appears that while most pre-industrial manufacturing activity was spread evenly across regions of France prior to mechanisation in cotton spinning, by the middle of the 19th century, industries which mechanised concentrated close to the cotton spinning sector, while the same is not true for non-modernising sectors.
Corruption and growth (with Mihály Fazekas)
In recent years, a series of studies has credibly identified the micro-effects of corruption in a wide variety of settings, yet there is far less understanding about the macro implications, particularly the link between corruption and economic growth. In this paper, we aim to get a step closer to understanding this relationship by constructing a measure of corruption based on a micro-level administrative dataset available for 38 countries across the globe for 9 years. In contrast to previous literature, we measure corruption based on the outcome of market interactions as opposed to traditional measures which rely on agents' perceptions. We exploit time-series variation in our data to turn the standard corruption-growth question around and ask whether countries can “outgrow” corruption using exogenous terms of trade and weather shocks as instruments for countries’ growth rates.
Temporary Protection and Technology Adoption: Evidence from the Napoleonic Blockade
Awarded FREIT-EIIT Best Graduate Paper Prize, 2014
Paper (to be) presented at: ETSG 2014 (Munich, September 11-13) , NEUDC 2014 (Boston, November 1-2), FREIT EIIT North-American Meeting 2014 (Eugene, November 7-9), SAEe 2014 (Palma de Mallorca, December 11-12), Econometric Society European Winter Meeting (Madrid, December 15-16)
This paper uses a natural experiment to assess whether temporary protection from trade with industrial leaders can foster development of infant industries in follower countries. Using a new dataset compiled from primary sources, I find that in the short-run regions (départements) in the French Empire which became better protected from trade with the British for exogenous reasons during the Napoleonic Wars (1803-15) increased capacity in a new technology, mechanised cotton spinning, to a larger extent than regions which remained more exposed to trade. Temporary protection had long term effects. In particular, by exploiting the fact that the post-war location of the cotton industry was determined to a large extent by the historical accident of the wars, I first show that the location of cotton spinning within France was persistent, and firms located in regions with higher post-war spinning capacity were more productive 30 years later. Second, I find that after the restoration of peace, exports of cotton goods from France increased substantially, consistent with evolving comparative advantage in cottons. Third, I show that as late as 1850, France and Belgium - both part of the French Empire prior to 1815 - had larger cotton spinning industries than other Continental European countries which were not protected from British trade during the wars; this suggests that adoption of the new technology was far from inevitable.
Work in Progress
Inter-industry linkages: Evidence from France
Many theories of economic development assume inter-industry spillovers of productivity, yet the empirical importance of these linkages is not well understood. Disentangling inter-industry spillovers from location fundamentals, which tend to make the same area favourable for different sectors, is generally difficult. In this paper, I exploit a historical accident that led to mechanised cotton spinning developing in one particular location in France. I examine how the location of the first modern industrial sector in France effected the locational choice of other modern (mechanised) industries which developed later in the 19th century. It appears that while most pre-industrial manufacturing activity was spread evenly across regions of France prior to mechanisation in cotton spinning, by the middle of the 19th century, industries which mechanised concentrated close to the cotton spinning sector, while the same is not true for non-modernising sectors.
Corruption and growth (with Mihály Fazekas)
In recent years, a series of studies has credibly identified the micro-effects of corruption in a wide variety of settings, yet there is far less understanding about the macro implications, particularly the link between corruption and economic growth. In this paper, we aim to get a step closer to understanding this relationship by constructing a measure of corruption based on a micro-level administrative dataset available for 38 countries across the globe for 9 years. In contrast to previous literature, we measure corruption based on the outcome of market interactions as opposed to traditional measures which rely on agents' perceptions. We exploit time-series variation in our data to turn the standard corruption-growth question around and ask whether countries can “outgrow” corruption using exogenous terms of trade and weather shocks as instruments for countries’ growth rates.